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Strengthening Resilience: Turkey’s Earthquake Preparedness and Building Safety
Strengthening Resilience: Turkey’s Earthquake Preparedness

Strengthening Resilience: Turkey’s Earthquake Preparedness and Building Safety

Prepared by Prof. Dr. Ali Osman Öncel

August 19, 2025

The February 6, 2023, earthquakes in Turkey underscored a harsh reality: living in this region means confronting major earthquakes, as history has repeatedly shown. The only solution is preparedness—renewing building stocks and designing structures to withstand this seismic reality. This discussion, prepared by Prof. Dr. Ali Osman Öncel, features Prof. Dr. Ali Osman Öncel, seismologist from Istanbul University-Cerrahpaşa, Prof. Dr. Ali Koçak, civil engineer from Yıldız Technical University, and Yoshinori Moriwaki, architect and civil engineer, joining via Skype from Japan. Together, they explore Turkey’s earthquake preparedness, lessons from past disasters, and the urgent need for urban transformation.

Question: "How can Turkey better prepare for inevitable earthquakes? What lessons from history should guide us?"

Prof. Dr. Ali Osman Öncel: "Turkey has faced numerous earthquakes since 1999—Gölcük, Elazığ, Van, İzmir, and the devastating February 6, 2023, Kahramanmaraş quake." The 1999 Marmara earthquake affected 15 million people, with 17,000 lives lost. The 2023 quake, at 7.9 magnitude, impacted a similar number but claimed 50,000 lives, showing a persistent vulnerability. The energy difference between a 7.4 (1999) and 7.9 (2023) quake equates to three 1999 quakes. Historical data, like the 1939 Erzincan quake (40,000 deaths), confirms Turkey’s capacity for 7.9-magnitude events.

Question: "What do past earthquakes reveal about Turkey’s seismic risks?"

Prof. Dr. Ali Osman Öncel: "Earthquake hazard maps, critical for preparedness, were updated slowly—1996 to 2019, a 23-year gap." This lag, compared to Canada’s frequent updates, shows insufficient progress. Limited investment in seismology and engineering doctorates hampers advancements. Prof. Dr. Ali Koçak: "Pre-2000 buildings are largely substandard, often built without proper engineering." Illegal constructions in areas like Küçükçekmece and Bahçelievler collapse even without quakes, reflecting a normalization of poor standards.

Question: "Why are Turkey’s hazard maps outdated? How can investments in seismology improve?"

Prof. Dr. Ali Osman Öncel: "The 2003 Istanbul Master Plan, developed with Japan’s JICA, outlined seismic improvements but remains unimplemented." Poor materials, shoddy workmanship, and inadequate oversight persist. Yoshinori Moriwaki: "Japan’s strict permitting ensures no building is occupied without seismic approval." In Turkey, unlicensed constructions and lax enforcement undermine standards. The 2023 quake saw 5% of new buildings collapse, despite regulations.

Question: "What are the main issues with Turkey’s building standards?"

Prof. Dr. Ali Koçak: "Engineers need rigorous training and certification." Japan requires two years of practical experience and a national exam. In Turkey, oversight is superficial, with engineers often absent. Prof. Dr. Ali Osman Öncel: "Geotechnical data is critical; not every soil is suitable for construction." Low fees for inspections—1.5% and 3% of costs—and no mandatory geotechnical oversight lead to 40% of collapses from soil issues. Both emphasize ethical standards and professional licensing.

Question: "How can Turkey strengthen engineering oversight and training?"

Prof. Dr. Ali Osman Öncel: "Urban transformation must prioritize high-risk zones based on ground resilience." Yoshinori Moriwaki notes Japan starts with weakest sites. The 1999 Marmara earthquake’s impact on Avcılar, where soft soil amplified destruction, proves this need. The 2003 Istanbul Master Plan remains unimplemented, leaving 300,000 buildings in Istanbul vulnerable. In Hatay, soft soils caused significant damage. Transformation must focus on high ground acceleration areas.

Question: "How should Turkey prioritize urban transformation?"

Prof. Dr. Ali Koçak: "Transformation isn’t just rebuilding—it’s about strategic planning." Current efforts focus on individual buildings, not holistic urban renewal. With 300,000 at-risk buildings, Turkey lacks the budget for wholesale replacement. Retrofitting, rather than demolition, requires expert engineering. An 8-story building with two illegal floors should retain acquired rights, but the focus must be on preventing loss of life. Koçak: "Ministries, municipalities, universities, and engineers must collaborate under a single framework."

Question: "How can strategic planning and retrofitting accelerate urban transformation?"

Yoshinori Moriwaki: "Japan decentralizes industry to reduce urban density." Turkey could relocate industries to safer regions like Konya or Karaman. Moriwaki: "Soft-soil areas like Avcılar and Küçükçekmece need urgent transformation." Retrofitting with carbon fiber or steel is cheaper and faster. Japan’s quake-resistant schools offer a model. Prof. Dr. Ali Koçak: "A national strategy is needed." Prof. Dr. Ali Osman Öncel: "Public awareness must value safe homes." Educational campaigns can drive change.

Question: "How can industry relocation and public awareness campaigns reduce seismic risks?"

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